Addressing Pakistan’s Population Growth Crisis: A Call for Immediate Action
Population Growth Oversight in Budget Discussions
It was futile to expect Pakistan’s phenomenally high population growth rate and staggering population numbers of over 240 million to find mention in any of the budget speeches. The impact of a large population on lowering per ca-pita incomes and fore castes economic growth rates of two to three percent barely featured in post-budget discussions. Additionally, the glaring link between population numbers and declining per ca-pita income was all but ignored, as was its impact on poverty and the low rate of household investment and savings.
Media and Policy Advisors’ Neglect
Surprisingly, it did not occur to media pundits or policy advisers to challenge how an economic growth rate as sluggish as 2-3% could possibly absorb a population growth rate of over 2% and pull the country out of an economic abyss. In a nutshell, among the numerous remedies for reviving the economy, the strong potential impact of reducing the population growth rate was overlooked.
Questionable Census Results and Political Implications
More than five years have passed since the Supreme Court took notice of the 2017 population census, which reported a growth rate of 2.4%. Another census was held in 2023, supposedly to validate these results. The latest census ended up recording an even higher five-year inter censal population growth rate, with the latest figure standing at 2.55%. The population estimate of 241 million is unacceptably higher than any projections made for 2023 by international agencies such as the UN Population Division, in addition to national demographers and statisticians.
Resource Allocation and Political Gains
The political buzz around the 2023 census results resembled an auction, with each province and political group asking for greater allocation of resources, commensurate with their population size. The provinces and parties that gained additional seats and resources were presumed the winners, and those that reduced their share of the pie by declaring smaller numbers, the losers. Amid the enthusiasm for financial resources and political representation, the principle that the census count is meant to calculate the needs of the citizens, according to the Constitution, was forgotten.
Acceptance of Exaggerated Growth Rates
Of deep concern is the fact that the exaggerated intercensal population growth rate has gained wide acceptance among officials, including economic policy planners. Up to the 1990s, the Planning Commission, tasked with five-year plans, would have expressed concern over evidently distorted population figures. In that scenario, the contested intercensal growth rate of 2.55% would have been re-evaluated and verified through consultations at the highest level before it was accepted. The concerned census commissioners would have meticulously weighed and vetted the numbers, even to the point of scrutinizing a decimal place of change in population growth because of its multiple implications for economic planning.
Historical Approach to Population Concerns
Those were the good old days, when the addition of a million or even thousands of citizens to the population was taken seriously and the associated needs duly addressed. Population-related concerns were prioritized in policy making. The current NFC award, which gives 82% weight-age to population size, is a pernicious incentive to exaggerate population size. To top it all, many view the census as merely an exercise to allocate parliamentary seats and demarcate constituencies.
Lessons from Other Nations
Realizing that lowering fertility rates was conducive to human development, the leadership of many a country formulated and implemented effective population policies. President Suharto of Indonesia in 1967, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh in 1975, and president Khamenei of Iran in the late 1980s took that course of action. Even the Muslim Gulf states have an average total fertility rate of two children per woman. Saudi Arabia now has a fertility rate of 2.4 children per woman, which is one child less than Pakistan.
Educational Emergency and Population Policy
When the Government of Pakistan declared an educational emergency last month, it raised hopes that a population emergency would follow. There has been a clear neglect of the education sector despite Article 25-A of the Constitution, which makes free primary education mandatory. The failure of not reducing fertility has increased the number of out-of-school children.
Missed Opportunities in Population Policy
If the population policy of 2002 had been successfully implemented, fertility rates would have reached 2.1 children per woman by 2020. Consequently, we would not have a single child out of school based on our existing efforts to raise educational enrollment rates. However, as things stand, there are 23 million children who are out of school due to the challenge of accommodating 7 million additional children each year. As a result, we are leaving behind a generation of incapacitated children who cannot read or write and are likely to be stunted due to poor nutrition.
A Call for Leadership
We ask the prime minister to prioritize the challenge of reducing the population growth rate for multiple reasons. The most important among them is to protect the fundamental human right of millions of children to basic education. This nation is in dire need of leadership on an important policy matter which impacts the lives of millions.
Need for Immediate Policy Action
The oversight of not pursuing the 2002 population policy, or the CCI Plan of Action, 2018, does not implicate the government in power as it spans two decades of negligence. What is available now is an opportunity for the current political leadership to seize the moment and make a difference through appropriate course correction.
Mobilizing Leadership for Population Control
It is an opportune time for the prime minister to mobilize all four chief ministers in the next meeting of the Council of Common Interests to renew their pledge to the CCI’s population decisions of 2018. The religious leadership stands united in supporting the new population narrative of tawazzun (balance), which gives individuals the right to balance their family size in accordance with their resources.
Political Support and Consequences of Inaction
Additionally, all major political parties currently in power in the provinces have expressed their support for decisions of the CCI in their respective 2023 manifestos. Not taking immediate policy action on tackling population growth rates will be a huge blunder, one with a huge cost for the country.