Putin’s State Visit to China
Last month, Russian President Putin paid a state visit to China, underscoring strategic relations between Moscow and Beijing as well as personal ties between Putin and Xi. Several bilateral agreements were inked during the visit ranging from trade, investment, technology transfer, defense, and arms, reflecting the nature of natural partners for a multi polar world. Both leaders had already expressed their countries’ relations as a “No Limits partnership” before the verge of the Ukraine war in 2022.
Factors Behind the Moscow-Beijing Alliance
There are multiple reasons behind fostering Moscow and Beijing relations. Few analysts argue that the authoritarian nature of both governments and the leaders’ personalities are the chief factors for the closeness of Sino-Russia ties. However, the ground reality is quite opposite and striking. The leading factor of Sino-Russia’s strong ties is the USA, whose policies in the Indo-Pacific and Europe are pulling the strings of Beijing and Moscow to come closer for the safety of mutual interests.
US Influence on Russia’s Strategic Moves
Regarding Russia, the USA has positioned itself as the protector of Europe since the end of the Cold War and embarked on the mission of eastward expansion of NATO, near the Russian borders, without taking any account of Russia’s security concerns. Not only the Eastward expansion of NATO but also the Color Revolution for regime change operations in Eastern Europe, aiming to replace pro-Moscow governments with pro-western ones, has been another source of irritation for Putin’s Russia. During the NATO Summit in Bucharest (2008), the USA decided to give NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine, providing the last nail in the coffin for Moscow. That year, Putin’s Russia decided to fight back against American imperialism in Russia’s backyard.
The Catalyst of the Ukraine Conflict
American actions in Europe and Asia are the principal reason behind the limitless and strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow. In 2021, Russia approached the USA and its allies several times to roll back Ukraine’s coordination with NATO. However, when much water crossed the bridge, Russian intelligence reports revealed that the USA had secretly been arming Ukraine for a possible fight with Russia. This was the Cuban Missile Moment (1962) for Russia as per the analysis of Prof. John Mearsheimer. A desperate Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022. Later the story is well known; Russia, being economically sanctioned and isolated from the international community, engaged in a brutal fight with Ukraine, which had the full backing of the West in terms of military, economic aid, political, and diplomatic support.
China’s Rapid Ascent and US Containment Strategies
In Asia, China has been progressing rapidly in terms of economy, technology, military, and human development index since 2000. In 2010, when the Chinese economy claimed to be the world’s second-largest and poised to replace the USA in a few decades, the USA felt threatened by Chinese progress, although China’s victory was purely based on the liberal economic order established by the USA and its allies after WW2. The USA has also been worried about the modernization of the Chinese military, which could carve out an area of influence (hegemony) in East Asia. China became a principal threat to the USA’s security and interests in East Asia and beyond.
US Policies and the Pivot to Asia
During Obama’s presidency, the Pivot to Asia policy (2011) proclaimed a more balanced economic, security, and diplomatic approach vis-à-vis China. Furthermore, during that time, many American eminent scholars like Mearsheimer and Graham Allison opined that strategic competition had become inevitable between Washington and Beijing, indicating the revival of Cold War 2.0 and the possibility of a hot war in East Asia over the issue of Taiwan. The Trump and Biden presidencies have seen a trade war with China, imposing trade restrictions on Chinese products, while forming alliances like the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, USA) and AUKUS, and building an anti-Chinese coalition in East Asia and beyond for the economic and military containment of China. These measures alarmed the Chinese and their political leadership warned the USA on multiple stages that rivalry and partnership could not go side by side as the USA must abandon its Cold War mentality in the era of a multi polar world.
Fostering a Close Sino-Russian Relationship
In this context, both Russia and China, on the pretext of the American policy of containment, have fostered a close relationship. Trade volume between Moscow and Beijing has staggered at $240 billion while Moscow has become a petrochemical supplier to China. China is also interested in the transfer of weapons and missile technologies from Moscow for the modernization of the Chinese military. Both countries also share a vision for a multi polar world where the global south will have more say at the international level. Despite being a European country, Russia has turned its back towards Asia and has been a champion of the global South, supporting causes such as Palestine. Russia and China are founding members of SCO and BRICS, whose security and economic dimensions will be instrumental shortly. Both countries have expressed open-door policies for SCO and BRICS and a vision for a multi polar world, undermining Western hegemony at the international level.
Mutual Support in Regional Concerns
Both countries are also supportive of their respective concerns in East Asia and Europe. For example, Putin’s Russia has shown full support for the Taiwan issue and the One-China policy. Russia also feels that the USA wants to provoke China to attack Taiwan as it did with Russia in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Chinese leadership remained sympathetic to the security concerns of Russia regarding the eastward expansion of NATO as it faces a similar dilemma in East Asia with the Quad and AUKUS. China has also provided a road map for peace in Ukraine and offered arbitration for the Ukraine conflict.
US Perspectives on the Sino-Russian Partnership
The USA views the growing partnership between Russia and China as a threat to a free and democratic world. The USA has expressed reservations regarding Chinese support for the isolated Russia after the Ukraine war in 2022, although China refuted these claims. The USA has also suggested that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine aims at creating a Greater Russia by conquering all of Eastern Europe, portraying Putin as a revisionist and imperialist. The Russian Foreign Ministry has dismissed these American statements as groundless.
The Future of the Sino-Russian Partnership
In a nutshell, American actions in Europe and Asia are the principal reasons behind the limitless and strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow, which is deeply rooted in multiple dimensions. In the near future, the Sino-Russian partnership could become a potential force for reshaping the international order and could challenge the US-led order. Therefore, provocative actions from any great powers—USA, China, and Russia—are not in the interest of global peace, progress, prosperity, and stability.
