NOOR Wali Mehsud, the ameer of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), recently announced that their ‘jihad’ against Pakistan had entered a “decisive phase”. He emphasized the determination to “liberate their lands and enforce the divine laws therein”. Mehsud’s newfound confidence stems from the sanctuary provided by the Afghan Taliban government and the commitment of Afghanistan-based Al Qaeda to mentor the TTP in its terrorist campaign against Pakistan. This necessitates a thorough review of Pakistan’s strategy to tackle this evolving security challenge posed by a more experienced, committed, and battle-hardened adversary.
Attack the Enemy’s Strategy
To prepare for war, Sun Tzu states “of supreme importance … is to attack the enemy’s strategy”. Thus, Pakistan’s primary objective in defeating the TTP should be to proactively neutralize its anticipated terrorism strategy. This can be achieved through a response based on four pillars: creating a conducive environment for national counterterrorism (CT) efforts, addressing the external dimension by targeting the use of Afghanistan as a sanctuary, sustained and coordinated kinetic measures, and a holistic plan for comprehensive, well-resourced, non-kinetic measures.
Setting Our House in Order
A poor and divided nation struggles to counter serious security challenges, and unfortunately, that is Pakistan’s current state. Political polarization is unprecedented, economic conditions are dire, and social cohesiveness is at its lowest. These factors sap the resolve and capability to fight terrorism. Therefore, the essential starting point for Pakistan in its war against the lethal troika is to resolve political polarization, alleviate economic woes, and build a more cohesive society through a government trusted by its citizens, improving the rule of law, adherence to fundamental rights, and accountability.
The External Dimension
The external dimension is crucial as the revived TTP and Al Qaeda’s center of gravity is their sanctuary in Afghanistan. To restrict this sanctuary, Pakistan must engage with the Afghan government bilaterally, regionally, and globally. Bilaterally, a nuanced approach should be adopted to incentivize the Taliban to restrict terrorist activities on their soil. Regionally, the revival of these groups poses a threat to regional security, which can be addressed through forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Globally, Pakistan can use various fora, such as the UN, to highlight the implications of these sanctuaries for global security.
Preventing Territorial Gains
While the sanctuary in Afghanistan is an asset for TTP/Al Qaeda, it is also a constraint due to the Taliban’s 2020 Doha accord commitment not to allow their territory to be used for terrorism against other countries. The group’s primary goal would be to capture territory in Pakistan to proclaim they are not based in Afghanistan. To counter this, Pakistan must prioritize preventing the TTP from capturing territory along the Afghan border.
Coordinated Kinetic Measures
Kinetic measures are an essential part of the CT toolkit. However, military operations in ex-Fata and Swat from 2014 to 2020, although initially successful, did not prevent the TTP’s revival post-2021. Factors include the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the lack of capacity building for local police and civilian departments to sustain peace after military withdrawal. Effective long-term military operations must be paired with the development of these civilian institutions.
Building Societal Resilience
Building the resilience of society to counter the terrorist threat is equally crucial. The resilience shown by the people of Swat in 2022 against the TTP needs to be expanded and strengthened through non-kinetic measures. These measures include increasing socioeconomic opportunities, reducing political marginalization, improving governance, and neutralizing social networks propagating violent extremism. The front-line province, KP, deserves the highest priority in terms of resource allocation for CT and PVE.
Political Ownership and Civilian Supremacy
Despite the recurrent suggestions for these measures, implementation remains scarce due to a lack of political ownership of national CT/PVE efforts, the perception that national security is solely the military’s domain, and insufficient resource allocation to civilian institutions. Therefore, civilianizing the concept of national security, with the military in a supportive role, is essential. Without addressing the political, economic, and governance dimensions simultaneously, military efforts will remain short-lived.
The Path Forward
In CT, described by Rupert Smith as a “war among people”, the military’s utility is critical but limited unless complemented by political, economic, and governance strategies. Civilian supremacy in CT/PVE decision-making is vital for long-term success against the Afghanistan-based lethal troika. The future of our success hinges on learning and implementing this lesson. The choice is ours.